Quantum communication growth drivers: Cybersecurity and quantum computing

Momentum is intensifying behind quantum communication, a technology segment with significant potential to affect cybersecurity and quantum computing. By addressing the widespread vulnerabilities of existing security standards to quantum computing–based decryption, quantum communication enhances the security of communication networks. Quantum communication technologies also play a critical role in the infrastructure needed to deploy high-impact, fault-tolerant quantum computers at scale.

Quantum communication applications include quantum key distribution for secure communications (may be combined with post-quantum cryptography), local quantum networks (including modular interconnects for quantum computers), and global networks (such as a quantum internet for distributed quantum computing).

McKinsey analysis estimates the total 2023 quantum communication market was $0.9 billion to $1.0 billion. With rapid growth at an anticipated CAGR of 23 to 25 percent, the market could expand to $10.5 billion to $14.9 billion by 2035, with post-quantum cryptography holding the largest market share at $2.4 billion to $3.4 billion.

What are the main drivers of this growth?

  • Cybersecurity concerns. Quantum computing advancements accelerate the arrival of Q-Day, when cryptographically relevant quantum computers will become able to break classical encryption. Q-Day may represent an inflection point in the adoption of quantum computing and is expected to spur quantum communication countermeasures to secure data and communications networks.
  • Growing demand for quantum networking. Most quantum computing architectures are modular and may require interconnects to transport quantum information between quantum computing modules. In addition, local-area and global quantum networks may enable distributed sensing and distributed quantum computing.
  • Public and private interest in quantum capabilities. While governments and public sector entities are leading quantum communication investments to address potential national security threats, interest is expected to grow in private sectors such as telecommunications and finance. Worldwide demand for quantum communication solutions is also driven by the construction and testing of regional- and global-scale quantum networks seeking to transmit classical or quantum information securely.

To develop a road map for successfully leveraging quantum communication technologies, organizations should assess their potential cybersecurity risks and opportunities well ahead of Q-Day. This assessment should include evaluating tech stack implications and, for some players, potential areas to engage in the commercial quantum communication market.

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